Result estimated by FiveThirtyEight | Minimum Profitable Odds Calculation:ĭortmund 27% = 0.27 ▶ Odds = 1/0.27 = 3.70 Based on FiveThirtyEight’s probability calculations. We’ll have a full explanation of Minimum Profitable Odds and what that means coming up.Įssentially, we are just calculating the inverse of the probability to find the lowest odds at which we could still be making a profit on the event, the Minimum Profitable Odds. Next, we will use these probabilities to work out the ‘Minimum Profitable Odds’. We’ll give FiveThirtyEight far too much credit and assume that the probability they have calculated is perfect. Let’s go deeper into how these probabilities work and how we can work with them. This is a great example we can use to explain our core concept. For many sporting events, FiveThirtyEight has begun calculating and sharing their own probabilities. Systematic and disciplined value betting is the key to beating the bookies and making consistent and long term profits in sports betting! Examples of Value BetsĪ great example to show how Value Bets work and are calculated is by using the probabilities calculated by FiveThirtyEight, a publication with a speciality in statistics and polling. If we are able to calculate the true probabilities of markets better than the bookmakers, we can find miscalculations and inefficiencies in their odds, and profit. Thankfully, sports betting odds are merely individual estimates made by each bookmaker. In the long run, we would always end up losing our money due to the margin or commission they charge. If the bookmakers knew with 100% certainty the probability of an event the pre-match odds would never waver, it would be mathematically impossible to beat them. This would be a bet that has value, a Value Bet.įor example, if the market had a 50% chance of winning, and the odds were $2.10 that would be a Value Bet.

So, we can deduce that the key to making money investing in sports betting is to know the real probability of an event and always bet with a bookmaker that offers odds higher than that probability.

We would be left with odds between $1.90 and $1.99, depending on the bookmaker Of course, they then adjust the odds to give themselves a small margin.įor example, if the market had a 50% chance of winning, the odds would be $2.00, they would then adjust to add a margin for themselves. The odds at which we bet, with all bookmakers, align approximately with the real probabilities of that market. Every time we make a bet or make a deal we are always looking for value. The idea is simple and comes from the mathematical concept of Expected Value. Value Bets are bets placed at odds that are higher than the actual probability of the market.

Profitable sports betting systems